[In this series, BNA’s climate blog takes a closer look at U.S. regions covered in the draft National Climate Assessment. In addition to the Great Plains, regions covered in the assessment include the Southeast and Caribbean, Northeast, Midwest, Southwest, Northwest, Alaska and the Arctic, and Hawaii and U.S. Affiliated Pacific States.]

Due to the challenges posed by climate change to the Great Plains region, the risks of delaying responses are “tremendous,” according to the draft National Climate Assessment.

Furthermore, the magnitude of existing adaptation and planning efforts are inadequate and do not match the magnitude of expected changes.

As detailed in an Energy and Climate Report article published Jan. 11, the draft, released by the National Climate Assessment and Development Advisory Committee, is not yet an official federal document. It will become so once it’s submitted to the National Science and Technology Council sometime this fall.

The council is expected to review, modify, and approve a final draft by Jan. 30, 2014.

A national assessment on climate science and climate change impacts is due to Congress every four years under the Global Change Research Act of 1990. However, only two reports have been completed since the law passed, one in 2000 and the other in 2009.

The Great Plains region in the draft national assessment includes Kansas, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Texas, and Wyoming.

Temperature, Precipitation

High-temperature days in the Great Plains region are expected to occur more frequently even if greenhouse gas emissions decrease substantially, according to the draft assessment. For example, there are an average of seven days a year above 100 degrees Fahrenheit in the southern part of the region. That number is expected to quadruple by mid-century.

While the cooler northern part of the region is not expected to have as many high-temperature days, it’s also warming at an alarming rate. For example, North Dakota’s increase in annual average temperature is the fastest in the contiguous United States and is mainly driven by warming winters, the draft found.

Changes in precipitation are less certain, but the draft found that—if greenhouse gas emissions remain at high levels—annual rainfall will increase in the north, especially heavy precipitation and snow events, and decrease in the south, with more days of little or no precipitation leading to more droughts. In central areas, changes in precipitation are projected to be small, according to the draft assessment.

Agriculture, Energy, Water

A key message in the draft assessment is that rising temperatures are leading to increased demand for water and energy. The southern region is expected to be particularly vulnerable to water shortages, which will affect policies related to irrigation, municipal use and energy generation, the draft said. For example, significant amounts of water are used to produce energy and to cool power plants, and while hydraulic fracturing uses relatively smaller amounts water, it can place significant demands on local and rural groundwater systems, the draft said.

While the region is known for its large supplies of coal, natural gas, and oil, as well as its potential for renewables—Texas is the nation’s number one wind energy producer—more than 80 percent of the land in the region is used primarily for agriculture and rangeland.

With water key to the Great Plains region economy—the total market value of the agriculture and livestock sector is estimated at $92 billion—changes in rainfall events and increased temperature will require new management practices, the draft said.

The northern region will likely see an increase in agricultural activity due to longer growing seasons and increased precipitation and temperatures. However, higher temperatures are expected to pose challenges by allowing pests and invasive weeds to proliferate, and more intense rain and snow will increase flooding, erosion, and nutrient runoff.

In the southern part of the region, increased withdrawals from aquifers will limit irrigation in semi-arid areas that depend on it, such as western Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas, and worsen current stresses on agriculture production, the draft found.

Furthermore, in areas that are projected to be hotter and drier, maintaining agriculture may become too costly and create a northward shift of crop and livestock production. The draft noted that during the drought of 2011 and 2012, ranchers liquidated large herds due to a lack of food and water, and some Texas ranchers diversified their portfolios by also managing herds in Montana.

Landscape, Vulnerable Communities

The ability of species in the Great Plains region to adapt to climate change also is being threatened, according to the draft, by landscape fragmentation that is being caused by development of land for energy production and urban expansion and due to economic pressures to exempt land from conservation easements.

The Great Plains region also must tailor its responses to climate change to protect vulnerable communities, which include more than 70 federally recognized tribes, the elderly who live in remote rural locations, and a large Hispanic population that may be hindered by adaptation due to the language barrier.

Urban areas also will demand more water, and by expanding into forest and crop areas, will be at a greater risk for wildfires, which the draft said are “factors that interplay with climate.”

Adaptation Efforts Need to Increase

While the draft found that there is “tremendous” potential for the Great Plains region to adapt to climate change, there is “no clear catalog of ongoing adaptation activities.”

The draft assessment said successful adaptation will require “recognition and commitment” to address the challenges posed by climate change, regional-scale planning and local-to-regional implementation, restoration of ecological and natural systems, information sharing among decisionmakers, and an alignment of social and ecological goals.