Employer Hiring Plans Largely Flat Throughout 2011; Show Signs of Slowing in the First Quarter of 2012

After an initial pickup in hiring projections from the fourth quarter of 2010 to the first quarter of 2011, employer hiring plans were largely flat in the remaining three quarters of 2011 and are showing some indications of slowing in the first quarter of 2012, according to projections from 384 employers responding to BNA's latest quarterly employment survey.“There is a great deal of uncertainty right now,” said BNA Surveys Director Matthew Sottong. “Poor economic performance, not only in the US but also abroad, gridlock on Capital Hill and the run-up to a Presidential election where the outcome is very much in doubt…all of those factors lead to timidity on the part of business to expand and hire new people.  Until some of those factors are resolved, we are very likely to continue to see flat or slowing job growth in all business sectors”

The survey finds that:

• Just over one in five surveyed employers (21 percent) plan to add production and service staff in the first quarter of 2012. This is a 5 percentage-point decline in hiring plans since the fourth quarter of 2011 and the first quarter of 2011 (26 percent). Hiring projections have declined more in larger organizations of 1,000 employees or more (from 29 percent to 15 percent) than in smaller ones (from 26 percent to 23 percent).
• Nearly three in 10 employers (28 percent) will be adding technical and professional staff in the first quarter of 2012, down a modest 3 percentage points from the previous quarter and the first quarter of 2011 (31 percent). Hiring projections through 2011 hovered just above the 30 percent mark.
• There has also been attrition in employer demand for office and clerical workers. Thirteen percent of employers anticipate hiring at least some office and clerical staff in the first quarter of 2012, down 6 percentage points from last quarter (19 percent) and 5 points from the first quarter of 2011 (18 percent).
• Trends in anticipated workforce cutbacks also indicate a possible softening in the employer job market. Twelve percent of employers anticipate a decline in their production and service workforce in the first quarter of 2012, up a modest 2 points from the fourth quarter of 2011 (10 percent) and 5 points since the first quarter of 2011 (7 percent).
• Anticipated declines in demand for technical and professional workers are up only marginally since last quarter (from 6 percent to 7 percent of surveyed employers). However, since the first quarter of 2011, anticipated cutbacks in technical and professional staff have increased from 3 percent to 7 percent.
• Nine percent of employers plan on reducing their office and clerical staffs in the first quarter of 2012, up 2 points since the first and fourth quarters of 2011 (7 percent). There has been little in the way of discernable trends in anticipated workforce cutbacks of office/clerical workers over the course of the past 12 months.
• Job vacancies increased somewhat for production/service and technical/professional staff but were flat for office/clerical workers. Reported vacancies in production and service positions were 19 percent in the fourth quarter of 2011, compared with 17 percent in the third quarter of 2011 and 16 percent in the fourth quarter of 2010. Forty-seven percent of employers indicated difficulties filling technical and professional positions in the fourth quarter of 2011, compared with 44 percent in the previous quarter and 43 percent one year earlier. Seven percent of employers reported office and clerical vacancies in the fourth quarter, unchanged from last quarter and up only 1 point since the fourth quarter of 2010 (6 percent).

BNA’s survey of the employment outlook has been conducted quarterly since 1974. This report is based on responses from 384 human resource and employee relations executives representing a cross-section of U.S. employers, both public and private.