By Diana I. Gregg
Forecasters see the U.S. economy growing modestly next year at 2.1 percent, with growth strengthening to 3 percent by the fourth quarter, the National Association for Business Economics said Dec. 17.
The new NABE forecast for real gross domestic product growth, based on predictions from 48 well-known economists, is nearly unchanged from the previous outlook released in October, which had growth at 2.2 percent next year, measured year over year. But forecasters now see somewhat stronger job growth and higher home prices along with softer business investment.
Measured from fourth quarter to fourth quarter, GDP is forecast to grow 2.4 percent next year, the same as in 2012.
In the survey, taken Nov. 15-28, unemployment is expected to drop to 7.7 percent next year after averaging 8.1 percent this year, and job growth will pick up to 165,000 a month from 156,000 this year. Both predictions are improvements from the October poll.
But business investment in equipment and software is now seen rising just 5 percent next year, while investment in structures expands 3.1 percent, weaker than thought previously.
The economists think home prices will rise 3.5 percent next year, as measured by the Federal Housing Finance Agency's index, on a fourth quarter to fourth quarter basis; they had a 2.8 percent increase in the previous survey.
The survey panel members trimmed their forecast for average oil prices to $93.2 a barrel next year, from $99.6 in the earlier poll.
There is no increase in inflation seen, as the consumer price index is expected to advance only 2.1 percent this year and next.
The federal budget deficit will narrow to $900 billion in fiscal 2013 from $1.3 trillion this year, somewhat more optimistic than the $950 billion in the October forecast.
A portion of the NABE forecasters expect the European crisis to worsen, with nearly half anticipating that Spain will need a larger bailout than previously announced and close to one-third expecting that Italy will receive a package next year. However, only one-fifth believe Greece will exit the euro zone.
By Diana I. Gregg
All Bloomberg BNA treatises are available on standing order, which ensures you will always receive the most current edition of the book or supplement of the title you have ordered from Bloomberg BNA’s book division. As soon as a new supplement or edition is published (usually annually) for a title you’ve previously purchased and requested to be placed on standing order, we’ll ship it to you to review for 30 days without any obligation. During this period, you can either (a) honor the invoice and receive a 5% discount (in addition to any other discounts you may qualify for) off the then-current price of the update, plus shipping and handling or (b) return the book(s), in which case, your invoice will be cancelled upon receipt of the book(s). Call us for a prepaid UPS label for your return. It’s as simple and easy as that. Most importantly, standing orders mean you will never have to worry about the timeliness of the information you’re relying on. And, you may discontinue standing orders at any time by contacting us at 1.800.960.1220 or by sending an email to firstname.lastname@example.org.
Put me on standing order at a 5% discount off list price of all future updates, in addition to any other discounts I may quality for. (Returnable within 30 days.)
Notify me when updates are available (No standing order will be created).