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Hiring Prospects Unlikely to Improve Much in the Fourth Quarter; Reports of Layoffs and Pending Job Cuts Remain Low, Bloomberg BNA Survey Finds

Arlington, Va. (September 2013) — Most job holders and seekers will see little change in their circumstances and prospects during the fall, according to respondents to Bloomberg BNA’s Quarterly Survey on the Employment Outlook. Job opportunities for production/service workers and professional/technical employees will likely hold steady in the fourth quarter, and a brief spike in office/clerical opportunities during the spring has vanished over the ensuing six months. Hiring projections for all three non-management employee groups reflect modest declines from projections for the last three months of 2012; job prospects have fallen off somewhat since a period of steady improvement in 2010 and 2011. On the brighter side, reports of fewer workers on layoff and planned job eliminations continue to indicate low risk of job loss for those who are currently employed.

Hiring Projections
Hiring prospects for professional and technical employees have slipped some since mid-2011, according to the survey. Twenty-seven percent of responding employers anticipate growth in their technical/professional workforces in late 2013, down just slightly from projections for the third quarter (28 percent), three points below the percentage recorded a year ago, and down six points from the post-recession peak of 33 percent in the second quarter of 2011.

Production/service workers’ job opportunities have followed roughly the same path as technical/professional prospects over the last two years.  Less than one-fifth of the surveyed establishments (18 percent) plan to add production/service staff in October, November, and December, unchanged from three months earlier, down from a year ago (23 percent), and well below the post-recession high of 26 percent in the first, third, and fourth quarters of 2011.

Following marked improvement two quarters ago, hiring prospects for office/clerical job candidates have reversed direction. Just 12 percent of employers expect to hire new clerical workers during the last three months of 2013, compared with 16 percent and 19 percent in the previous two quarters, and the smallest percentage anticipating office/clerical expansion since the third quarter of 2011.

Employees on Layoff, Job Eliminations
Hiring might be sluggish, but those who currently hold jobs appear fairly secure. Since early 2011, reports of workers on layoff and planned reductions-in-force have mostly run below 10 percent for all three nonmanagement employee groups covered by the survey. Just nine percent of establishments reported any production/service workers on layoff in July and August, little changed from the previous quarter (10 percent) and the summer of 2012 (eight percent).

Even fewer employers had any technical/professional workers (seven percent) or office/clerical staff (six percent) on inactive status during the summer, marking almost three straight years in which layoff incidence has not climbed above eight percent for either employee group.

Job cuts loom at few of the responding establishments, consistent with surveys conducted over the past two to three years (depending on the employee group). Only six percent of the employers anticipate reductions in their production/service workforces during the fourth quarter, eight percent expect office/clerical cuts, and six percent plan to eliminate professional or technical positions in the fall. Each of those figures reflects little or no change from projections for the previous quarter or the fourth quarter of 2012.

Job Vacancies
The quest for talent remains focused on technical and professional employees; 43 percent of the surveyed organizations reported trouble finding qualified technicians or professionals in July and August. For twelve straight quarters, at least four in 10 employers have indicated difficulty filling technical or professional vacancies. Production/service openings (15 percent) and office/clerical vacancies (seven  percent) pose much less of a challenge, the Bloomberg BNA survey found.

About the Survey: The survey is conducted quarterly among a panel of human resource executives representing organizations throughout the United States. Of the 253 employers responding in time for tabulation of this survey, 51 percent have fewer than 250 workers, 15 percent have workforces of 250 to 499 employees, 12 percent employ 500 to 999 workers, nine percent have workforces of 1,000 to 2,499 employees, and 13 percent employ at least 2,500 workers. By industry, 22 percent of the organizations are manufacturing companies, 52 percent are nonmanufacturing firms, and 26 percent are nonbusiness establishments (e.g., health care, education, government). By region, 21 percent of the employers are located in the Northeast, 38 percent are in the South, 29 percent operate in the North Central states, and 12 percent are located in the West.  Total employment of the reporting organizations: 698,311.