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Final Second-Quarter BNA Index Points to Steady Rate of Wage Increases

NEWS RELEASE

Contacts:
Karen James Cody,
BNA - Press Contact
Joel Popkin - (202) 466-9063
Kathryn Kobe - (202) 466-7720

Washington, D.C. (July 17, 2007) – The rate of wage growth for private sector workers is expected to remain steady in coming months, according to the final second-quarter Wage Trend Indicator™ (WTI) released today by BNA, a Washington, D.C.-based news publisher.

The final WTI of 100.85 for the second quarter is up from the final first-quarter index of 100.80 (second quarter 1976 = 100). Since the third quarter of 2006, when the index also reached 100.85, the WTI has fluctuated within a narrow range.

"The latest WTI reading continues to indicate we're in a holding pattern, where year-over-year wage increases will stay roughly in the 3 percent area in the next several months," said economist Kathryn Kobe, who worked on the development of the index for BNA.

Private sector wages rose 3.6 percent over the 12 months ended in March, up from a 2.4 percent gain over the year ended in March 2006, according to the employment cost index (ECI) produced by the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Over its history, the WTI has predicted a turning point in wage trends six to nine months before the trends are apparent in the ECI. A sustained decline in the WTI is predictive of a deceleration in the rate of wage increases in the private sector. A sustained increase predicts greater pressure to raise wages.

Four of the WTI's seven components made positive contributions to the final second-quarter index, while two components were negative, and one was neutral, Kobe said. Helping to boost the index was an increase in the proportion of employers reporting difficulty in filling professional and technical jobs, based on BNA's quarterly Employment Outlook Survey.

The other positive contributors were the expected inflation rate, compiled by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia; the unemployment rate from BLS's monthly employment report; and industrial production, tracked by the Federal Reserve Board.

Contributions of Components

The two WTI components that made negative contributions to the final second-quarter index were average hourly earnings of production and nonsupervisory workers from BLS, and the proportion of employers planning to hire production and service workers from BNA's employment survey. The neutral component was job losers as a percentage of the labor force, from BLS.

BNA's Wage Trend Indicator™ is designed to serve as a yardstick for employers, analysts, and policymakers to identify turning points in private sector wage patterns. It also provides timely information for business and human resource analysts and executives as they plan for year-to-year changes in compensation costs.

The WTI is released in 12 monthly reports per year showing the preliminary, revised, and final readings for each quarter, based on newly emerging economic data.  

More information on the Wage Trend Indicator is available on BNA's home page at http://www.wagetrendindicator.com.

The next report of the Wage Trend Indicator™ will be released on:

Friday, August 17 (preliminary third quarter 2007)

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BNA is the foremost publisher of print and electronic news, analysis, and reference products, providing intensive coverage of legal and regulatory developments for professionals in business and government. BNA produces more than 200 news and information services, including the highly respected Daily Labor Report and the Daily Report for Executives.

Dr. Popkin is acknowledged as one of the country's foremost authorities on the measurement and analysis of wages and prices. Formerly an official with the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Dr. Popkin has been an analyst observing and predicting the U.S. economic outlook for 40 years. Kathryn Kobe, who worked with Popkin in designing the indicator for BNA, is director of price, wage, and productivity analysis at Economic Consulting Services LLC.

To obtain Wage Trend Indicator™ reports by e-mail on a regular basis, contact Ted Gideon, BNA PLUS, (800) 372-1033.