WASHINGTON, D.C.--Updated modeling has increased the social and economic impact of carbon dioxide emissions federal agencies will use to calculate the costs and benefits of regulations, according to a recent analysis.
At a 3 percent discount rate, the social cost of carbon dioxide would be $43 per ton in 2020 as calculated in 2007 dollars and as high as $71 per ton in 2050, according to the Technical Support Document: Technical Update of the Social Cost of Carbon for Regulatory Impact Analysis Under Executive Order 12866, released May 31.
Other modeling approaches in the document suggest the cost carbon dioxide emissions could range between $12 per ton and $65 per ton in 2020 and between $27 per ton and $98 per ton by 2050. Under the most extreme scenarios considered, carbon dioxide could cost as much as $129 per ton in 2020 and $221 per ton by 2050.
The technical support document was prepared by a federal interagency working group that included representatives from the Environmental Protection Agency, Transportation Department, Office of Management and Budget, Council of Economic Advisers, Council on Environmental Quality, and other federal agencies. Federal agencies will use the updated social costs of carbon dioxide, such as changes in agricultural productivity, effects on human health, and property damage from increased flood risk, and other environmental and social impacts caused by climate change, as part of their cost and benefit analysis of regulations.
Executive Order No. 13,563, issued in January 2011, requires federal agencies to more stringently review all pending and existing regulations for costs, benefits, and other factors (11 ECR, 1/18/11).
Updated modeling has increased the projected costs of carbon dioxide since the working group issued its previous analysis in 2010. In that assessment, 1 ton of carbon dioxide had an estimated social cost of $26.30 for 2020 with a discount rate of 3 percent in 2007 dollars. The cost was projected to increase to $44.90 per ton in 2050. The earlier analysis said the price of carbon dioxide could be as low as $6.80 per ton in 2020 or as high as $41.70 per ton with a range of $15.70 per ton and $65 per ton in 2050. Under the most extreme modeling scenarios, the social cost of carbon dioxide reached $80.70 per ton in 2020 and $136.20 per ton in 2050.
The interagency working group conducted the analysis using the most recent versions of the federal government's DICE, PAGE, and FUND integrated assessment models. All of the models have been updated since 2010 to include more complex carbon cycle models and to better reflect the damage caused by sea level rise.
All Bloomberg BNA treatises are available on standing order, which ensures you will always receive the most current edition of the book or supplement of the title you have ordered from Bloomberg BNA’s book division. As soon as a new supplement or edition is published (usually annually) for a title you’ve previously purchased and requested to be placed on standing order, we’ll ship it to you to review for 30 days without any obligation. During this period, you can either (a) honor the invoice and receive a 5% discount (in addition to any other discounts you may qualify for) off the then-current price of the update, plus shipping and handling or (b) return the book(s), in which case, your invoice will be cancelled upon receipt of the book(s). Call us for a prepaid UPS label for your return. It’s as simple and easy as that. Most importantly, standing orders mean you will never have to worry about the timeliness of the information you’re relying on. And, you may discontinue standing orders at any time by contacting us at 1.800.960.1220 or by sending an email to email@example.com.
Put me on standing order at a 5% discount off list price of all future updates, in addition to any other discounts I may quality for. (Returnable within 30 days.)
Notify me when updates are available (No standing order will be created).
This Bloomberg BNA report is available on standing order, which ensures you will all receive the latest edition. This report is updated annually and we will send you the latest edition once it has been published. By signing up for standing order you will never have to worry about the timeliness of the information you need. And, you may discontinue standing orders at any time by contacting us at 1.800.372.1033, option 5, or by sending us an email to firstname.lastname@example.org.
Put me on standing order
Notify me when new releases are available (no standing order will be created)