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Wednesday, February 22, 2012

U.S. Storms, Sea-Level Rise: Climate Change Predictions Leading to Action

by Regina Cline

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 Remember back in August 2011 when Hurricane Irene was bearing down on the East Coast threatening to flood New York City?

Here's an example of the response to the hurricane, which was downgraded to a tropical storm before it hit the Big Apple, from an Aug. 26, 2011, New York Times article:

For the first time in its history, New York City planned to shut down its entire mass transit and subway system— the world’s largest—beginning at noon on Saturday. At least 370,000 people in the city were ordered evacuated from low-lying areas.

As the storm passed through the New York area Aug. 28, the U.S. Geological Survey, using near-time storm gages, measured and found that peak water discharges into the Hudson, Delaware, and St. Lawrence river basins exceeded 100-year flood levels. Furthermore, peak water discharges into some other basins in the region exceeded 500-year flood levels.

The data were included in an article by Ward Freeman, director of the U.S. Geological Survey's New York Water Science Center, published in a September 2011 USGS monthly newsletter.

What if Climate Change Intensifies Storms?

The Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Princeton University on Feb. 13 released research that used New York City as a case study. The study found that climate change could result in a 100-year flood occurring every three to 20 years and a 500-year flood occurring every 25 to 240 years.

A 100-year storm can produce a flood surge of up to 2 meters (6+ feet), according to researchers (see graphic above).

Manhattan's seawalls stand at 1.5 meters (4' 11").

Fortunately, New York City was spared the worst of Irene.

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, maximum storm surge values at stations from New York City to Woods Hole, Mass., were recorded between three and five feet.

If the MIT/Princeton predications are correct, a 500-year storm event, which last hit New York City in 1821 and produced a flood surge of 3.2 meters (18+ feet), may occur sooner rather than later.

MIT's Ning Lin, lead author of the study, said urban and coastal planners may find the results useful when designing seawalls and other protective structures.

NYC Faces Rise in Sea Level

Not only does New York City face the possibility of more frequent intense storms due to climate change, according to scientists, but rising sea levels continue to pose a threat.

For example, working with the NOAA, the New York City Panel on Climate Change found that sea levels may rise approximately 1 to 2 feet by 2050.

According to a NOAA factsheet, Data Helps New York City Prepare for Climate Change Adatptation, efforts are underway by the city to adapt to climate change, including, for example, raising pumps at the Rockaway Wastewater Treatment plant from 25 feet below the existing sea level to 14 feet above current sea level.

San Diego Braces for Higher Seas

On the West Coast, the San Diego Foundation and ICLEI-Local Governments for Sustainability USA released an adaptation strategy Feb. 16 to account for an expected rise in sea level.

According to Sea-Level Rise Adaptation Strategy for San Diego Bay, the greatest cause for concern is an increase in the frequency and severity of flooding events during storms or very high tides.

The strategy, released by five area local governments, the Port of San Diego, San Diego County Airport Authority, with input from the Navy, Federal Emergency Management Agency, Sand Diego Gas & Power, and numerous other governmental and nongovernmental organizations, found that sea levels could rise by as much as 17 inches by 2050 and five feet by 2011, inundating many areas around the bay.

Ten broad recommendations are included in the strategy, which ICLEI USA said represents one of the nation's first regional approaches to preparing for projected sea-level rise.

Most States With Adaptation Plans on East, West Coast

As detailed in a September 29, 2011, World Climate Change Report analysis, only some 13 states, mostly on the East Coast and West Coast have completed climate change adaptation plans. They are Alaska, California, Florida, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin. Connecticut and Minnesota are also developing plans.

The states acknowledge that they are already feeling the effects of climate change, and for many, sea-level rise and increased storm intensity are a major concern.

However many agencies and communities outside coastal areas are reluctant to engage in adaptation efforts because climate change effects, such as sea-level rise, are not being observed by inland areas.

Maryland Leading the Way in Solution Planning

Maryland has climate change strategies to adapt to flooding due to storm intensity and sea-level rise, according to a report released in October 2011 by the Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions at Duke University.

For example, Maryland planners have recommended strengthening existing building codes and construction techniques in the event of an increase in tropical storms. The state also is working on retaining and expanding natural habitats to protect against coastal flooding.

As with New York, the state's strategy also includes relocating high-risk facilties away from vulnerable areas.

Politically Charged Issue

The Nicholas Institute report also found that, sea-level rise in particular, presents "unprecedented problems," which in extreme cases leads to politically unpopular discussions over climate change.

This is something Virginia lawmakers seem to be trying to avoid in response to rising sea levels in the Hampton Roads area, home to military bases and waterfront houses.

Absent climate change, sea-levels are rising because the area is sinking due to a crater created by an asteroid that hit the region almost 35 million years ago. Sea levels have risen 14 and half inches since 1930.

According to a 2008 Governor's Commission on Climate Change Report, the Hampton Roads region is considered to be the second most populated region at risk from sea-level and related storm damage after the New Orleans region. The report estimates that the area will see a rise of 2.3-5.2 feet or higher by 2100.

A bill is wending its way through the Virginia General Assembly (S.J. 76) to fund a study by the Virginia Institute of Marine Science on adaptation strategies for the region.

Of note, as reported in a Feb. 6 dailypress.com article, S.J. 76 doesn't mention the words "climate change."

According to a Feb. 22 editorial in the Virginia-Pilot, the bill, which has passed unanimously in the Senate and various committees in the House, is expected to be approved by the full Assembly.
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