About 13 million Americans would lose their health insurance over a 10-year period if the Republican bill to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act is passed, a Trump administration actuary reported.
The estimate, from the chief actuary of the Department of Health and Human Services’s Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, was well below the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office’s May 24 estimate that 23 million more people would be uninsured under the House-passed American Health Care Act (H.R. 1628) in 2026 compared to the Affordable Care Act.
The Senate is working on its own version of Obamacare repeal-replacement legislation, which is expected to roll back fewer of the current law’s provisions that have expanded coverage through Medicaid and the health insurance exchanges.
Federal expenditures would decrease by $328 billion in fiscal years 2017-2026 under the AHCA compared to current law, the CMS actuary said. The decrease, which compares with $119 billion lower spending projected by the CBO, is primarily due to lower Medicaid spending.
For the individual insurance market, average gross premiums, before premium tax credits are factored in, would be about 13 percent lower in 2026 under the AHCA than under current law, the CMS said. However, after subsidies are accounted for, net premiums would be about 5 percent higher, or $19 more per month, it said.
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