What Goes Up Must Come Down: Trump Takes Credit for Market Cycle

Vice President Mike Pence today marked the one-year election anniversary of President Donald Trump by listing the accomplishments of their first year, most notably the success of the economy.

“Thanks to the president’s leadership, the American economy is roaring,” Pence wrote in an op-ed for USA Today. “Businesses have created nearly 1.5 million new jobs. Manufacturers haven’t been this confident in 20 years.”

“The stock market is setting records, creating nearly $5 trillion in wealth for the pension, retirement and savings of the American people,” Pence wrote.


Trump raised eyebrows in Pennsylvania last month when he claimed that his administration had increased the country’s economic worth by $5.2 trillion in the stock market alone.

“Since the election on November 8th, I've increased the value of your U.S. assets by more than the $20 trillion that we currently owe,” the president added.

The economy is indeed doing great, said Dan White, a director at Moody’s Analytics responsible for government consulting and economic research. 

But “how much of that can be directly attributed to the fact that Donald Trump is the president, no one will ever really know for sure and it’s something we can all argue about,” White told Bloomberg Government.

The U.S. is in year eight of the current business cycle, which means it has been eight years since the last recession, White said.

“This is precisely where we would expect to be with regard to most economic measures at this point in the economy,” he said.

Indeed, the economic data are probably going to continue to get better and better over the next year or so, as wages grow and prices rebound, White predicted.

As they do, inflation will rise and the Fed will raise interest rates, putting the U.S. economy at the “peak” of the business cycle, White said.

“The big question for us in the economics world is what comes after that,” White said. “You don’t have to be a Ph.D. in economics to know what comes after the top of the business cycle—it’s the bottom of the business cycle,” he said.

So, it’s a question of how long the top of the cycle will last until it eventually turns into the next recession, which many economists feel will happen sometime in the next three to four years, White said.